NEWS
RtForecastR 0.1.1 (2026-08-21)
- Bug fix:
rt_forecast()'s forecast_quantiles element (used for
weighted interval score calculations via wis()) was computed from
a disconnected in-sample calculation that did not correspond to the
genuine out-of-sample forecast reported in fit$forecast. It now
derives directly from the same forecast distribution, so e.g.
forecast_quantiles[["0.025"]] is guaranteed identical to
c(fit$forecast$lo95, fit$forecast$hi95). Also fixes a duplicate
"0.25" entry that could appear in forecast_quantiles when the
default quantile_levels was used.
RtForecastR 0.1.0 (2026-08-20)
- Initial CRAN release.
rt_forecast(): filtered (real-time) and smoothed (retrospective)
R_t estimation, one-step-ahead in-sample predictions, a genuine
out-of-sample forecast, and elimination probability P(R_t < 1).plot.rtforecast(): R_t, forecast, and observed-vs-predicted plots.- Forecast calibration metrics:
mae(), mse(), rmse(),
coverage(), interval_score(), wis().
score_batches(): score archived weekly forecast output against
realized case counts.- Two bundled example datasets:
measles_cdmx, jalisco.